from stratfor.com
Summary
Russia's Parliament has approved a draft resolution threatening sanctions
against Moldova if Chisinau does not end its blockade of the Transdniestria
region. Moldova's anti-Russian stance and the Russian Duma's reaction are
escalating the tension between the two. More importantly, however, the
confrontation sets the stage for a second conflict between the West and
Russia following Ukraine's "Orange Revolution."
Analysis
The Russian Duma approved a draft resolution Feb. 18 that threatens sanctions
against Moldova for continuing to blockade the Transdniestria region. More
than the blockade, however, the resolution is a direct result of the
detainment earlier in the day of several Russian international election
observers and of continuing calls from Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin
for Russian peacekeepers to leave Transdniestria.
Moldova's anti-Russian actions and Moscow's warning to Chisinau significantly
increase the chances of another intercontinental showdown -- pitting the
United States and the European Union against Russia -- over the future of an
Eastern European state. At the very least, it will further worsen relations
between the Western powers and Russia, leading Europe to drift away from its
giant neighbor to the East.
The conflict over Transdniestria began when the Soviet Union ceased to exist
in December 1991, and Transdniestria -- a region lumped together with Moldova
under the Soviet system -- announced it would break away from Chisinau.
Transdniestria's majority population is ethnic Eastern Slavs, Russians and
Ukrainians, with a minority of ethnic Moldovans. Moldova would like to keep
Transdniestria attached for one key reason: it is the industrial heart of the
country. Since Aug. 1, 2003, Transdniestria has been subject to "economic
measures" from Moldova that amount to a blockade. Chisinau refuses to issue
Moldovan customs documentation to any Transdniestrian companies that have not
registered with the government (which entails paying Moldovan taxes).
Several hundred Russian "peacekeepers" are stationed in Transdniestria --
their presence part of an agreement signed in 1992 after Moldova tried
unsuccessfully to reclaim the region. Voronin, despite being a Communist, is
fervently anti-Russian and has called repeatedly for the peacekeepers to
leave; they are tentatively scheduled to depart by the end of 2005. Voronin
also seizes every opportunity to antagonize Moscow -- most recently on Feb.
18, when police arrested and deported 18 "uninvited" international observers
who, according to Moscow, were in Moldova to monitor the upcoming
parliamentary elections. Fourteen of the deportees were Russian, along with
two Ukrainians and two Kazakhs. A week earlier, Moldovan officials detained
five Russian election observers for not registering with the country's
Central Election Commission. It is possible the deportees were not actually
election "monitors" at all, and that Russia, in order to save face over that
little discrepancy, threatened sanctions over the blockade instead.
The Duma drafted its statement calling for Russia to consider charging
Moldova world market prices for energy supplies, banning Moldovan-produced
alcohol and tobacco products, and requiring visas for citizens of Moldova --
with special exemptions for Transdniestrian residents. Such sanctions, if
enacted, would hit Moldova right where it hurts. Moldova imports all of its
natural gas and oil from Russia, and pays well below market prices for both
-- thanks to a generous discount from Moscow.
But tiny Moldova does not seem particularly afraid of Russia -- largely
because both the European Union and the United States have indicated they
would support Moldova should Moscow move against it. Western support for the
country, however, might not extend to the Moldovan government.
Moldovan opposition sources in contact with Western diplomats in the country
say Moldova is next on the West's list for an "Orange Revolution" similar to
what Ukraine experienced during the 2004 presidential elections. (In that
case, the "orange" was the campaign color of Western-backed candidate and
eventual winner, Viktor Yushchenko). Moldova plans to hold general elections
March 6, and though Voronin is pro-Western and anti-Russian, the United
States and European Union would prefer to see a different president in office
-- most likely from the opposition, a mix of pro-Western nationalists and
liberals. Voronin reportedly is aware that Washington and Brussels would like
to knock him out of power, and to that end apparently is carrying out
last-ditch efforts to prove how anti-Russian he can be. On the U.S. side,
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has encouraged "a reintegrated, sovereign
Moldova" -- and Voronin stands in the way of that goal.
Sources on Capitol Hill said Feb. 18 that the U.S. government has
"dispatched" $1.7 million "to support Moldovan democracy." Additionally, U.S.
organizations -- including the National Endowment for Democracy and
non-governmental organizations (NGOs) such as George Soros' Open Institute --
are supporting the Moldovan opposition financially and in other ways, similar
to the support given to Georgian and Ukrainian opposition groups. Sources
indicate these organizations are holding seminars for the Moldovan opposition
that explain how to govern and how "root democracy" works to achieve
democracy through protests.
In Europe, several NGOs and government groups also are supporting the
Moldovan opposition. In particular, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council
of Europe has accused the Moldovan government of anti-democratic tendencies
and media manipulation. The U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe, Stephan Minikes, said during a Feb. 4 visit to
Moldova that the country should follow the example of Georgia and Ukraine and
that regime change in Moldova would help resolve the Transdniestria conflict
and advance Moldova toward democracy.
Support to this degree suggests the West might attempt to use both the
election and confrontation over Transdniestria as a chance to move against
Russia for a second time in a matter of months. The events in Ukraine have
emboldened Washington and Brussels to broaden a geopolitical offensive
against Russia in hopes of marginalizing its influence. The campaign began
when moderate pro-Western Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze was replaced
with completely pro-Western Mikhail Saakashvili in December 2002.
Moldova likely will become the next battleground. Not only will relations
between the West and Russia further deteriorate, an action in Moldova will
represent the second time that Washington and Brussels have worked together
to contain Moscow. Finally, a Moldovan "revolution" -- no matter what color
-- will show Russia that, despite the Europeans' sweet talk about wanting
better relations with Moscow, Europe is slowly drifting away.
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