| from stratfor.com
Summary
Bulgaria and Romania are set to formally sign their EU accession treaties April 25, and are expected to join the European Union in 2007. At first glance, it looked as though both countries would fall into the EU's pro-U.S., anti-Russian bloc. However, following recent political developments, each appears to be more and more up for grabs -- likely provoking the United States and Germany into a scramble for influence over the two nations.
Analysis
Bulgaria and Romania will sign accession treaties with the European Union -- which has approved the treaties' text -- on April 25. Both nations are expected to join the EU in 2007.
The two Balkan countries' position in the European Union -- as supporters of the United States and antagonists toward Russia -- once seemed assured, but the events of early 2005 could signal a change in position. Stratfor wrote in December 2004 that Bulgaria and Romania would be torn between the United States and Russia, but with the latter's waning influence in Eastern Europe and the resurgence of German foreign policy, Washington and Berlin instead will duke it out for influence with the EU's two future members.
Both Romania and Bulgaria were once ardent allies of the United States, joining the "coalition of the willing" in Operation Iraqi Freedom and together providing over 1,000 troops in Iraq. Governments of both nations also have agreed to host U.S. bases for training, part of an overall U.S. plan to move forces closer to the Middle East. U.S. President George W. Bush most recently praised Romanian President Traian Basescu on March 9, calling him -- and his country -- "a steadfast ally of freedom." Bush also supports Bulgaria's EU bid.
Since the Russian-backed candidate lost in Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" in December 2004, Moscow has seen its ability to dominate the EU's eastern border decrease dramatically. As a result, Sofia and Bucharest's dependence on Washington -- formerly predicated on the two Balkan nation's fears of the Russian Bear -- probably will be lessened. Both are members of NATO, and so will not have to rely solely on the United States for security -- although Bulgaria and Romania will perceive the United States as providing a stronger security guarantee than France or Germany. Moreover, the United States does not have strong economic ties to either country, ranking a distant fifth (to several European countries) on Romania's list of trading partners and trading even less with Bulgaria. Additionally, once the countries join the European Union, they will begin receiving EU aid, but likely will get little aid from the United States.
With Russia unable to project any influence in Bulgaria or Romania, and the United States able to project only a little, those countries will become the target of a Germany hoping to expand its reach inside the European Union. Germany began its big foreign policy push (independent of the rest of the European Union) at the end of 2004. It has since raised its profile, attempting to broker relations between the EU and Russia and position itself as a counterweight to the United States in Europe.
Germany also must shore up its influence in the European Council of Ministers, where key EU policy decisions are made. As it stands, the council bloc made up of Germany, France, Belgium and Luxembourg has just enough voting power to act as a minority veto on decisions it does not like. If Berlin and Paris are able to coax Spain into their alliance, this council bloc will have enough votes to balance the addition of Bulgaria and Romania. But if Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero does not cooperate, they must find other allies. Berlin was hoping to usher Croatia into the European Union in order to achieve this goal. However, that move failed, and now Germany will have to look for help elsewhere. Enter Bulgaria and Romania -- the EU's next two members-in-waiting.
Bulgaria is the strongest candidate to become Germany's EU ally. Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha (the former czar of Bulgaria) is a direct descendant of German and Italian royal families. Bulgaria fought on the side of the German-led Central Powers in World War I, and in World War II joined the Axis and was partly occupied by German forces until the Soviets invaded and persuaded Bulgaria to declare war on Germany. Sofia also is pulling its 400-odd troops out of Iraq after a diplomatic row over a "friendly fire" incident that resulted in U.S. troops killing a Bulgarian soldier.
Which way Bulgaria and Romania ultimately will lean -- toward the United States or toward the German bloc in the EU -- is still up in the air. With Russian influence out of the picture, Washington and Berlin will both make a grab for these strategic countries, which represent a link between Europe, Russia and the Middle East. aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
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